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GARYRAY-501488

EVERY PAYING JOB DEPENDS ON SOMEONE OR SOMETHING SPENDING, THEREFORE: SPENDING CUTS = JOB CUTS
Articles Posted: 30  Links Seeded: 575
Member Since: 9/2008  Last Seen: 5/21/2012

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Deceptive Economic Statistics: While the Economists Lied the US Economy Died (US Unemployment Rate Is About 22%)

Seeded on Wed Aug 18, 2010 9:36 AM EDT
Read ArticleArticle Source: OpEdNews.Com Progressive
politics, news, obama, economy, republicans, democrats, wall-streets, new-economy
Seeded by garyray-501488
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"Bought-and-paid-for-economists told us that "the new economy" would make us all rich, and so did the financial press. We were well rid, they claimed, of the "old" industries and manufactures, the departure of which destroyed the tax base of so many American cities and states and the livelihood of millions of Americans.

The bought-and-paid-for-economists got all the media forums for a decade. While they lied, the US economy died."

""Our government" tells us that the unemployment rate is just under 10 percent, a figure that would have wrecked any post-Great Depression administration. But, again, "our government" is lying. The reported unemployment rate is just below 10% because the US government no longer, since the corrupt Clinton administration, counts Americans who have been unemployed for longer than one year. Once the unemployed hit one year and one day, they are dropped from the unemployment roles and no longer counted as unemployed.

Compare this fact with the number you read from the financial press. Right now, if measured according to the methodology of 1980, the US unemployment rate is about 22%. Thus, the reported rate of unemployment hides more than half of the unemployed."

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garyray-501488

Wherever one looks -- food stamps, home foreclosures, bankrupted states, mounting joblessness -- the message to long-suffering Americans from "their government" is the same: go eat cake, while we fight wars for Israel that enrich the military/security complex, and while we bail out banksters whose annual incomes are in the tens of millions of dollars and up.

It is impossible to get any truth out of the US government about anything. If private companies used US government accounting, the executives would be prosecuted, convicted, and incarcerated.

Is this tantamount to corporate / government collusion?

Is America "run" for the benefit of the few....at the expense of the many?

  • 4 votes
Reply#1 - Wed Aug 18, 2010 9:39 AM EDT
Nicey-1026620

Right now, if measured according to the methodology of 1980, the US unemployment rate is about 22%.

I agree that unemployment is worse than measured. But it would not be 22% under 1980 methodology.

U-3 has always been the reported number. Previously it was U-5 under the old measurement. They have the same definition

"Total unemployed persons as a % of the civilian labor force"

http://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/1995/10/art3full.pdf

Here's the article on when they changed methodology in 1994 and the reported difference in 1995.

The new U-3 actually over reports compared to U-5 by about 0.1 or 0.2 points. Just due to changes in the way the data is recorded for the # of unemployed and the # in the workforce.

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm

Here's the list of tables from the BLS.

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm

A-15 is the alternative measures. U-6 is all inclusive (save for those who have actually exited the workforce, which can happen if you haven't looked for a job in the most recent 12 months, or if you never look for one after getting laid off and you didn't qualify for UI) it's 16.5%.

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t16.htm

Persons not in the labor force.

If you get the historical data, and measure the increase of people "not in the labor force" and then account for retiring and population increase, you will find the approximate number that have exited simply from not being able to find work.

U-4 and U-5 people are considered not in the labor force but are measured under those unemployment measurements.

http://www.bls.gov/webapps/legacy/cpsatab1.htm

This page here will help you retrieve historical data.

Based on last unemployment peak to unemployment low from 2002-2007, averaging out annually, the number not in the labor force increased by about 1.2 million a year (which would be considered from normal population growth and retirement).

In the last 2 years, that has increased 1.94 million a year. Obviously more than normal. We can estimate approx 1.5-2 million people have exited the labor force permenantly.

We also consider that in 1994-1995 when they made the change the # of discouraged workers was halved. Currently that # is 1.185 so double it.

The current civilian workforce is 153.56 million @ 16.5% = 25.34 million people + 1.185 + 2 = 18.6%

The nature of U-3 excludes some interesting things obviously going on. The exiting of people from the workforce, and notably increases in marginally attached workers and also part-time workers.

U-6 alone (part-time workers) is 5.5% currently. A major shift from non-recession numbers. It's an indication of people who are now only working part-time or temp jobs.

For some reason Shadow Stat latched onto the U-7 number. Frankly, they have no clue what they are talking about. U-7 would be better than U-6 if reported today. The old methods a) didn't even let you track not in the labor force and b) under reported part-time workers by a full 1.0 point. (And that was when they were 3.5% not 5.5%, that would be exaggerated to about 1.5-1.7% less today if U-7 was used).

Their big grind is discouraged workers. But Discouraged workers represent only 0.8% of the labor force.

  • 1 vote
#1.1 - Wed Aug 18, 2010 10:46 AM EDT
Reply
Nicey-1026620

counts Americans who have been unemployed for longer than one year. Once the unemployed hit one year and one day, they are dropped from the unemployment roles and no longer counted as unemployed.

That's not true.

If you look for a job in any month you're considered employed. It's only if you quit looking for a year, or never looked after you got laid off and didn't qualify for UI.

And as an aside. It's just not a large group of people when compared to other elements of the unemployment report.

http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/current.htm

The current UI claims. It's hard to keep track because they quit seperating claims and continuing claims, I think they just list the number currently collecting UI.

It's dropped from 6.1 to 4.5 million in the last year. Indicating the people who have exhausted their UI, and possibly left the workforce.

If you're collecting UI, you're required by law to be looking for employment to qualify. So most people on UI are considered unemployed because they've looked for a job in the most recent 12 months.

When looking at the BLS data for "not in the labor force" it confirms the DOL data. The most recent yearly rise is steep, from 79.614 to 82.620, just over 3 million. In my last post, I noted that 1.2 million increase a year would be standard.

So 1.8 million in excess, or approx 1.6 million who have fallen off of UI in the last year. I gave the range earlier as 1.5-2.0 million. And simply put, 2 million people is not enough to move the unemployment rate to 22%.

The workforce is 153.56 million, 2 million = 1.3%

I don't think the BLS, DOL have an agenda. They are statistical agencies, using mostly the same base methodoligies they have for 70 years. The government has an interest in keeping people "calm" I would say. To that end they report U-3.

I don't see it as conspiracy between big government and big business. That's much more focused on just stealing your money. What agenda does reporting low unemployment numbers have for employers right now?

A higher number would actually give them more leverage. Not less. A lower number gives potential job candidates more leverage.

    Reply#2 - Wed Aug 18, 2010 11:06 AM EDT
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